Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 6.214503e-05 0.000075 0.000088 0.000104 0.000121 0.000140 0.000162
2025-03-09 4.445112e-05 0.000060 0.000078 0.000101 0.000128 0.000158 0.000195
2025-03-16 3.588343e-05 0.000053 0.000074 0.000101 0.000134 0.000173 0.000221
2025-03-23 2.950406e-05 0.000047 0.000070 0.000101 0.000141 0.000188 0.000249
2025-03-30 2.427052e-05 0.000042 0.000066 0.000100 0.000145 0.000200 0.000271
2025-04-06 1.942003e-05 0.000037 0.000062 0.000098 0.000146 0.000208 0.000289
2025-04-13 1.673059e-05 0.000034 0.000060 0.000099 0.000153 0.000222 0.000314
2025-04-20 1.304526e-05 0.000029 0.000055 0.000095 0.000151 0.000225 0.000326
2025-04-27 1.090164e-05 0.000027 0.000053 0.000094 0.000154 0.000235 0.000346
2025-05-04 9.129620e-06 0.000024 0.000051 0.000094 0.000158 0.000244 0.000366
2025-05-11 8.180366e-06 0.000023 0.000051 0.000097 0.000166 0.000260 0.000394
2025-05-18 6.946470e-06 0.000022 0.000049 0.000097 0.000170 0.000271 0.000415
2025-05-25 5.129337e-06 0.000018 0.000045 0.000093 0.000168 0.000274 0.000428
2025-06-01 3.881328e-06 0.000016 0.000042 0.000091 0.000169 0.000282 0.000447
2025-06-08 3.045747e-06 0.000015 0.000040 0.000090 0.000172 0.000292 0.000469
2025-06-15 2.468746e-06 0.000013 0.000039 0.000091 0.000177 0.000305 0.000496
2025-06-22 1.875985e-06 0.000012 0.000038 0.000090 0.000180 0.000314 0.000517
2025-06-29 1.321068e-06 0.000010 0.000035 0.000087 0.000180 0.000319 0.000532
2025-07-06 1.057521e-06 0.000010 0.000034 0.000089 0.000185 0.000333 0.000561
2025-07-13 6.572588e-07 0.000008 0.000031 0.000085 0.000182 0.000334 0.000569
2025-07-20 4.650506e-07 0.000007 0.000030 0.000084 0.000185 0.000343 0.000591
2025-07-27 3.220545e-07 0.000006 0.000029 0.000084 0.000188 0.000353 0.000613
2025-08-03 2.613029e-07 0.000006 0.000029 0.000086 0.000196 0.000370 0.000647